As we approach the end of the 2024, the financial landscape of Ethiopia’s banking and insurance sectors presents a striking contrast. Most companies in these industries have already held their general assemblies, sharing financial performance reports with their shareholders. The trend observed during this period reveals a slight divergence: while insurance companies have reported significant increases in shareholder benefits, dividends, and earnings per share (EPS), the banking sector has relatively failed to maintain similar levels of performance, with slight lowering of dividends and EPS compared to previous years. What factors contribute to this disparity? Let us delve deeper into the dynamics at play.

The Impact of the Loan Cap on Banks

One of the key reasons for the banking sector’s underwhelming performance lies in the loan cap policy implemented by the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE). This measure, aimed at curbing inflation, placed strict limitations on the volume of loans that banks could disburse. While the intention was to reduce the liquidity fueling inflationary pressures, it significantly constrained banks’ core revenue-generating activities. Lending is the backbone of most banks, providing income through interest rates, fees, and commissions. The loan cap effectively throttled this source of income, leading to reduced profitability and, by extension, diminished shareholder returns.

Additionally, the loan cap policy disrupted the competitive dynamics within the banking sector. With limited lending opportunities, banks faced heightened competition to attract deposits while grappling with narrower margins. This created an environment of subdued growth, further dampening shareholder confidence.

Rising Costs and Challenges in the Banking Sector

The banking sector’s woes are not limited to the loan cap. Rising operational costs, including investments in technology to comply with digital transformation demands and regulatory changes, have strained profitability. Banks have also faced growing competition from newly established entrants in the financial market, forcing existing players to invest more in marketing, branch expansion, and customer acquisition strategies. These expenses, coupled with reduced lending activity, have eroded banks’ ability to generate attractive dividends.

Insurance Sector: A Year of Growth

In contrast, the insurance sector has enjoyed a year of remarkable growth. Shareholders of insurance companies have benefited from substantial increases in dividends and EPS. What underpins this strong performance?

1. Premium Growth: Insurance companies have seen significant growth in premium collections, driven by rising awareness of the need for insurance products among businesses and individuals. Economic activities such as infrastructure projects and real estate developments have fueled demand for property and casualty insurance, while heightened health awareness has boosted health and life insurance uptake.
2. Low Claims Ratios: Many insurance companies reported lower claims ratios during the year, translating into higher underwriting profits. While some of this may be attributed to effective risk management practices, external factors, such as fewer catastrophic events, have also played a role.
3. Investment Income: Unlike banks, insurance companies are less dependent on lending as a revenue source. Their income streams are diversified which contributed to their robust financial performance.

The Impact on the current fiscal year 2024/25

A major development in the current fiscal year has been the foreign currency liberalization and the floating of the Ethiopian birr, which occurred a few months ago. This policy shift has had immediate and significant implications for the banking sector:

1. Quarter One Performance: Banks with higher foreign currency reserves( Awash Bank S.C. , Zemen Bank S.C. ) reported exceptional revenue generated during the first quarter of the fiscal year. The floating of the currency allowed these banks to capitalize on favorable exchange rates, surpassing their initial performance expectations.
2. Future Projections:  Although some experts caution that the extraordinary growth seen in the first quarter may not replicate in subsequent quarters, it has already had a significant effect on the revenue and profit targets set for the year. As a result, even without replication, it is expected to be a very successful year for the banking sector. The policy has unlocked opportunities for increased foreign currency inflows, positioning banks for stronger performance in the remainder of the fiscal year and beyond.
3. Impact on 2024/25: The liberalization is expected to provide long-term benefits by improving foreign exchange liquidity and enhancing Ethiopia’s appeal to international investors. This could stimulate economic activity, creating new revenue streams for banks and setting the stage for substantial growth in the 2024/25 fiscal year.

Macro-Economic Considerations

Broader economic factors have also influenced the performance of the banking and insurance sectors:

• Inflation and Currency Depreciation: High inflation and a weakening Ethiopian birr have eroded consumer purchasing power, impacting banks’ ability to attract deposits. Conversely, insurance companies have managed to adjust premiums to reflect inflationary trends, safeguarding their revenue streams.
• Regulatory Environment: The NBE’s focus on stabilizing inflation has had uneven impacts across financial sectors. While banks bore the brunt of restrictive policies like the loan cap, insurance companies operated under relatively stable regulatory conditions, enabling them to pursue growth opportunities.

Future Outlook

Looking ahead, the banking sector’s recovery will depend heavily on the relaxation of restrictive policies, particularly the loan cap. Strong anticipation surrounds the expectation that the NBE will ease these restrictions within the current fiscal year, providing a significant boost to lending activity and overall profitability. While 2023/24 may be seen as a temporary dip in performance for the banking sector due to regulatory constraints and rising costs, the recent foreign currency liberalization and other policy shifts signal a brighter outlook for 2024/25. These changes are expected to unlock substantial growth, positioning banks to outperform in the coming fiscal year.

Banks must also prioritize innovation by embracing fintech solutions to diversify income streams and reduce operational costs, further strengthening their foundation for sustained success. While the insurance sector continues to thrive on premium growth, low claims ratios, and diversified investment strategies, the transformative potential of the ongoing policy adjustments places the banking sector in a position to achieve even more significant improvements in the near future. This highlights the importance of adaptive strategies and forward-looking regulatory frameworks that support recovery and long-term growth across all financial sectors.